tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg October 19, 2016 12:00am-1:01am EDT
on how much it is linked to pay on its first ever international bond now. -- international bond sale. well is stalling $50 and $60 as u.s. shale fields counteract opec's attempts to limit supply. it is 8:00 a.m. across the emirates, 5:00 a.m. in london. i am tracy in dubai. >> and i'm angie lau in hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets middle east. we are seeing the market mostly positive here in asia, especially after third-quarter gdp coming in line with estimates for china showing stabilization, but industrial output was amiss, so that actually saw some pullback. what is happening over there? tracy: the e big news here has t to be the saudi bond sale. we had initial price guidance from the banks yesterday. we are going to have to wait for
the actual orders to come in to see the actual price guidance, but i have got charts that give you some idea of what is going on. levelsows five-year cds for saudi arabia versus alou david versus qatar. we are seeing saudi arabia looking like it is going to have to pay up a little bit to get the deal done. guidance atpricing 160 basis points for a five-year trend, slightly higher than the 153 whisper number we were talking about last week. it seems like there's a bit of a premium happening. levelslook at this cds on a very basic level, you can see why. arabia has more concerns about weathering oil prices over the long-term versus other economies such as qatar and abu dhabi, which are more diversified. angie: definitely right. oil is the big driver. let's do a quick check of the state of play in the markets
across the region. mumbai has been trading for almost 20 minutes. you can see just a little change right now, hong kong fractionally lower. it was all about china's latest data showing more signs of stabilization with gdp and retail sales really bang on forecast. and industrial production slightly below. let's bring in our chief asia economics correspondent. what you make of the figures? reporter: it is a good headline number. it is the same story. they are relying on the same old playbook to keep things, cheap credit, more debt, more leverage. right now china has stabilized, but structurally going forward, the problems are still there, just pushing them further along road.ad grade
>> emagin to china relying on the same playbook. we have seen concern specifically over the housing market overheating. they have announced measures to try to quote that down. is that going to end up impacting gdp going forward? reporter: i think that is one of the biggest risks, the housing market and how it plays out. you're talking about housing boom and some of the biggest cities, and some of those cities there is genuine demand because there is a lack of supply on the land side. correction,housing it would be much deeper and much more significant impact on the economy than last year's stock market crash. we heard the nbs official talking about it at the press briefing. so far they are happy with the curve because it has proved effective, but all indications are they will continue to put in more curves.
that is the challenge, how to rein in prices in the bigger cities without hurting the wider economy. that is the key one to watch. >> given a challenge is going forward, how much relief are chinese authorities going to get from today's figures, which are pretty much bang on target? enda: i think they are bang on target, and i think it will make a hard landing in 2016. as we were saying earlier, none of the wider issues have gone away. the imf came out this week with a warning on china's debt. they said for sure china has the assets and the wherewithal to deal with this problem, but the window to deal with the debt issue is closing fast. they want urgent action. of analysts and people watching china's economy say growth is on target and they're likely to hit between 6.5% and 7%, but how sustainable is that unless they pushed through reforms? it will push bigger problems further down the road. thank you, our chief asia
economics correspondent. we are sticking with china because joining us now is the head of investment advisory for asia and the middle east for barclays. when you get chinese gdp numbers such as today, how excited you get by them? how much weight you put on them when it comes to gauging the strength of the world's second-biggest economy? foremost, weand thought that gdp numbers would be what they are. we think it is going to end close to 6.2%. we based this on the premise that china would need to control its capital account. they did not quite work out, but they pulled back a little bit. plus, the financial stimulus and fiscal stimulus, it seems to have worked. what china has done is acted fast. it realized that a long-term strategy it has in place needs to be addressed to some extent to ensure they don't give way to short-term momentum.
overall credit availability is increasing that is reflected in the consumption numbers, manufacturing pmi's are improving as well. china has been the biggest consumer of oil in the last two quarters are so. estimate, oil demand has picked up this year. overall, it is buoyant, good, it shows that the policy or the decision-making in china have immediate impact on the economy and the effect is working. so very pleased. tracy: that may be true, but this still lags behind the credit growth, especially in the markets -- in the mortgage sector, the property sector. that has fueled the growth and fueled policymakers to say, hang
on, this is way too hot, we need to pair back and address the debt issue here. if they pull back on stimulus, even if we did see 6.7% growth in the third quarter, will we see that moving forward? guest: you are absolutely right. the problems have not been gone away, just kicked ahead a little bit. with china has to contend with is bigger out how to grow at a rate higher than its indebtedness is growing. what we are seeing in china is continued focus on what really matters, which is preparation of ensuring the affiliates are more profitable than they have been in the past. you are absolutely right. the issues have not necessarily gone away. credit growth has been buoyant, but at the same time, the key in our opinion and what we believe that the policymakers in china are looking for is growth.
stimulative aspects of having a looser monetary policy with availability of credit will result in consumption, and that should hopefully drive the growth statistics moving forward. that is what we are looking forward to. if that is not transpire, the risks you mentioned are clearly alive. >> head of investment advisory for asia middle east in berkeley. you're going to get back to you and continue talking about china and global equities. let's check in on first wrote headlines from around the world. the samsung smartphone crisis has reached the courtroom. three note 7 owners are suing its u.s. unit in the first class action suit of the device. they are seeking unspecified ordering samsung to repair, recall, or replace the phones and extent applicable warranties. samsung and it note 7 production last week that ended production
last week. china's holdings in u.s. treasuries have fallen to the lowest in nearly four years. to biggest for an investor is reducing its holdings to prop up the yuan. it is down nearly $34 billion from a month ago. japan is the second biggest holder with $1.1 trillion, saudi arabia follows with $93 billion. president obama has slammed donald trump for his attempts to discredit election. obama dismissed the candidates claims that the boat is being rigged, calling the comments unprecedented in modern history. hemp first cry foul when lost to the iowa caucus to ted cruz, but has up his rhetoric after educations -- accusations of sexually assaulting women. i would like trumped to stop whining and try to get votes. some of the more sensational
implications are not based on actual events. the irish bookmaker has are ready out more than $1 million on a hillary clinton election win. it says her chance of victory is 86%, making her a near certainty to be donald trump. they typically pay out early on results they consider a foregone conclusion to draw publicity and allow templars to put their winnings another bets. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 reporters and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. heidi.thanks, let's get the latest from the markets from david english. david: what we are seeing right now is basically an extension of the rally in wall street. equities are up, bonds are up. commodities still a decent bid when you look at oil. inflation in the u.s. has not
picked up headlines. was little bit quicker, but it is not a threat at the moment. you have data come through, stable china. how long it will last, nobody knows, but we are still seeing the performance across southeast asia. , theppines in particular best run for the country since the elections back in may. i think we are up over 300 points over two days. these chinese related economies are getting a decent bid. not sure if that is a factor, but that is what we have seen. the president of the philippines is in beijing looking to strengthen ties. dollar.rkets saw a weak outperforming is and among the better performing currencies across the region.
we are now back to low 35 against the dollar. the u.s. dollar one sold off a little bit more than .7%. the dollar-yen has been flat all morning. back to this story on inflation over in the u.s., that is going to be key as we look ahead. u.s. 10 year yields dropped to higher,73, little bit but asia -- if you are seeing red, whether it is asia, malaysia, japan, those yields are coming down. the japanese 10 year yield is doing that. tracy: thank you, david. later in the show, saudi arabia and stocks fell by the most in the world as investors remain skeptical about corporate results there. angie: plus we're getting
>> welcome back. angie: i'm angie lau in hong kong. tracy: and i'm tracy in dubai. a quick check of the latest business headlines now. and intel plunged in extended trade after seeing fourth-quarter sales may fall short of estimates. that sparked concern the sluggish pc demand means manufacturers will have no need to replenish chip inventories. that are news for yahoo!, sales beat forecasts last quarter. -- a rare piece of good news after the hack that may threaten itself to verizon.
in two monthsin as it forecasts a big improvement in full-year net income. nikkei said it was expecting its first operating profit in three years at around $385 million. sharpe said it does report earnings and outlook on november 1. >> bhp says first quarter iron ore production fell 6% as it carries out a rail maintenance program, faces lower output in western australia, and deals with last year's deadly dam collapsed in brazil. production through september fell compared to last year, but still beat estimates. the ceo says there are signs the commodity markets are rebalancing. taxhares in australia's grew -- the cash and stock offer is at a premium of 21%.
the companies offer online and off-line sports betting and lotteries and say the deal will deliver $100 million in annual savings, shares also higher in sydney. saudi arabia has priced its debut international bond sale at a premium to qatar and abu dhabi's recent issues. it aims to sell dollar denominated bonds in 5, 10, and 30 year parcels to raise more than $10 billion. with us is barclays head of investment advisories for asia and middle east. vic, we got the initial pricing guidance in at 160 basis points over similar maturity u.s. treasuries for a five-year portion of the sale. that was a little bit higher than the 153 basis points some people have been talking about. were you surprised? guest: not quite. especially if you look at the cbs.
priced inrential is the cds right now. this pricing for the five year is just about right. tracy: business about the size of the bond issue, the fact it is the first ever international sale of debt by saudi arabia? or does it say something about concerns about their economy, or both? guest: both the semi-say make sense. it is a mix of things. we expected to be about $15 billion, perhaps slightly less than what argentina issued earlier this year. but less than that it is about behind the intent entire restructuring of the economy from a reduction of subsidies to salary, etc., excise tax, all of those things that will help address the deficit cap and whether it will work in saudi or not. stronger oil prices will help.
2017 will be the year that this impact will show on the economy. so yes, all of those things combined bring the pricing to the issue -- level the saudi's are issuing at. tracy: i want to note that for foreign investors looking for yields, this looks pretty good. but it is notable that saudi arabia has to pay more to borrow cash here, especially in that region. i want to bring you back to that chart we showed earlier, how saudi arabia really compares to his neighbors here. it is set to be priced higher than abu dhabi and qatar, but if you take a look at the five year, 10 year, 30 year, saudi arabia really tops here. how much of this is really a reflection of domestic pressure as it tries to reduce its budget shortfall, as it tries to address the low oil prices? guest: there is a healthy
skepticism about the performance of all these reforms the saudi government has announced. that is reflecting in the pricing that it has been able to achieve across its maturities. going back to the earlier point aboutthe environment with 13 trillion of fixed income around the world is negative, is this attractive? it certainly is. overall fundamentals of the economy are strong. saudi enacting the program, they are quite substantial, and excess of about $500 billion if not higher. off alle execution risk of these reforms which is causing a spate of concern in the markets. something similar happened when qatar came out with its first bond issue a couple of years ago. it did offer a premium because it was a bit of an unknown, and
i think that is the issue with the saudi. clerics you are head of investment advisory. how many inquiries are you getting about this debt issue, and are you advising that clients should buy? reporter: clients looking for yield, it is very attractive. we have a constructive view on the local economy, macro economically as well as on the corporate sector. certainly this is a very attractive issuance for private clients, especially those who want to earn a better yield them what cash rates or operate -- cash rates are offering. when you look across the world and you are looking for yield pickup, what is attractive right now? ,uest: emerging-market debt from certain parts of latin america, argentina, brazil, indonesia also and bits of india. emerging-market hard currency
>> welcome back. i am tracy alloway in dubai. angie: and i'm angie lau in hong kong. japan is still struggling to beat inflation and kickstart a recovery. and it seems foreign investors are finally losing patience. to have dumped the japanese holdings for the past five months. we have got roz jan taking a closer look into this story. is it going to get worse? reporter: it could do.
we have still got some time to go, so we will see. how close at this point are since to be the worst 1987, about $59 billion so far this year, greater than any of the market tracks by bloomberg. 2013, inflows to japan really spike, but they drop off of the quickly. a honeymoon. after abe became prime minister but ended quite soon. outflows0 billion of needs more explaining why the boj is on the president of buying -- president of buying. some markets have lost about 12% this year, but the boj is buying, buying, the outflows are just increasing. that is not the problems they are facing -- one of the problems they are facing. >> given at the boj is buying ats and that should be pushing up equities, are we expecting
outflows to get better before the end of the year? reporter: it depends on the situation. eventually, what we are looking at is now $59 billion in outflows. in september it was over 63 billion. if you look at the charts, it seems to be getting a little bit better. at the end of it, you can see a little uptick there, where does seem like investors are coming back into the markets. the outflows do seem to be lessening. lg capital partners saying foreign selling is overdone now. it appears the boj will make a move, the end should weaken, and that should revive equity markets. tyga said, two or three months left to go up the year, so it is a waiting game. >> thank you, rosalind chin. coming up, saudi arabia may have boosted oil sales to china, the world's second-biggest consumer.
hong: it is 12:30 here in kong. that chinesew economy remained stable in the third quarter. expect some present in line with estimates. intory output increased 6.1% september from a year early -- a year earlier. stability may provide room for policymakers to switch towards reining things in. investors and be giving up on japan. track for are now on their biggest annual axis since
the back they fled monday crash. the output is bigger than any of the market crashes, and helps explain the temps inside of the topics this year -- topix this year. saudi arabia has hinted at how much it will spend on its bond sales. they will be offered at a higher rate than u.s. treasury's, as well as recent offerings from qatar. there's a $97 billion shortfall caused by cheap oil. there is a call for urgent international evenings -- meetings in mosul as allies continue their assault on the so-called islamic state. the u.n. says hundreds of thousands of civilians may be trying to escape the city, creating what may be the largest
refugee crisis of the year. mosul fell to isis two years ago, and is the group's last-minute stronghold in iraq. lun.haidi this is bloomberg. it is 12:30 in hong kong. i am angie lau. tracy: and it is a: 30 in dubai. i am tracy alloway. anna: i've and edwards. good to see you tracy and angie. let's like that was coming up on european programming. brexit in focused on today's programming. they are throwing down the gauntlet for the u.k. government around brexit, suggesting they want the u.k. governments to ensure market access, or they will move their operations to dublin in january. they said they would file with irish regulators in january unless the u.k. politicians can guarantee them access to eu
markets as they join other london-based businesses who make similar sounding suggestions that they could move some of their operations to dublin, or could move to other parts of the eu. all of them want uninterrupted access to the eu markets. marketsracking the u.k. closely, because it represents 12.8% gdp. what could be at stake. convert texas another company that is looking at dublin. it may have to move some of its key sales staff to other european cities. we will continue to track what some of these financial services companies are saying about the brexit debate. also on that front, we have the chancellor in front of the treasury select committee. will be ready to hear from the hearings about whether and he's
-- mp's it about between -- before article 14. a lot of brexit related stories to talk about here in europe. tracy? a matter of great interest not just for the u.k. economy, but also for white if you of our watches today. there are also some earnings do today, i believe? anna: yes, some earnings from big corporate. retailer, we'll hear from other companies. this takes up on the brexit theme, because last week, we saw unilever in this long-running -- rather a brief dispute about pricing with tesco.
we're going to get numbers from that company. the other headache for the company is for the ceo and their operations in south korea, where sales ground to a halt after women and children fromlinked to sickness chemicals. our i going toref bring third-quarter numbers. the strategy has been to put an online collection points. they're facing tough competition in their home market. also, deteriorating conditions in some of their market in your. -- in your up. -- in europe. tracy. tracy: sounds like a busy day for you. here in the middle east, we are just under two hours away from the opening of the emirates and abu dhabi at
10:00 a.m. local time. let's get it quick check of what happened there yesterday. we can see some of these are up. however, the standout has to be saudi arabia's tadawul index. they saw the most in the world on tuesday, extending declines to a third day on the back of a flood of disappointing corporate results. more about to talk that with our emerging markets reporter. we have seen three consecutive days of losses for the saudi arabia and sock -- saudi arabia stock.k -- saudi arabian index was tadawul down yesterday. why the pessimism? >> this is a hard week for saudi stocks. we had a good day in the region.
stocks in dubai and abu dhabi were up. in salary, we keep saying for -- inurth straight day saudi arabia, we keep seeing for the fourth straight day prices reacting to reports. 3:00 on monday until the end of the trading day in riyadh yesterday, we had 28 companies posting earnings. out of that number, 21 of them either missed estimates or posted declines in earnings. investors are reacting to those numbers. we have to remember that saudi arabia is a very local market. we have 90% of the investors being retail investors. they are looking at the losses. we have a scenario in saudi arabia that we have been talking about witches -- which is a big attraction -- contraction in the economy taking place.
recently the government announced cuts in salaries and balances. that affects a lot of the average saudi's. tracy: and the retail investors in general across the world tend to get more nervous than institutional. >> we have many companies that considerableting healthy results. when you look at this scenario, but still they are losses and missing estimates. share prices are just reacting and showing exactly the scenario we are talking about. tracy: can we say that saudi stocks are cheap now? interesting is an point. since we have seen so many consecutive days of losses -- september was a terrible month for saudi stocks -- we now have saudi stocks trading at 13 times there price-to-earnings.
that is more than we see for emerging-market stocks. at this moment, we see investors that are looking for by up bargains, especially ones that are institutional investors and are looking at evaluation and figure out where they can put their money right now. if you consider just saudi banks , the sub industry index in the market, you see that local banks are trading very cloak -- very close to their price-to-book. there are good opportunities, there are good names that are still very healthy and that are attractive. it might just be a matter of time to see a pickup in saudi stocks. thank you so much for that. that opec anding others will clinch a deal to
reduce output. productiony expects to climb as rigs are added. >> it would stimulate high-cost producers to increase their production, such as shale oil. there's a timetable of six months to one year for shale oil to push back to increase production. >> i think it's more likely than not that opec this time will reach some kind of agreement in november. it is a complex process for them ,o allocate the production cuts but i think the drivers achieved some kind of agreement. let's bring in our bloomberg energy reporter. what is the outlook for oil? >> the surprise opec deal has pushed up to that $50 level. it seems to be fluctuating
around that level. it is acting as a bit of a forward anchor for oil at the moment. it will probably fluctuate or move around that mark for the next six weeks until he come to the opec meeting in november. if we look at longer-term, there are more executives and traders meeting in london at the moment, and the longer-term outlook to $60 for a50 up range during -- arrange. it could also act as a cap for the market. that seems to be the range where oil may trade. angie: certainly offset by the u.s. producers taking things up. what challenges when it comes to opec to the face when actually closing the deal? deale announcement of the is first up. very few expected that to happen. , decidingtion limits
on limits for members. that is throwing them a bit of a -- iraq and venezuela are not quite happy with that. then agreed to the deal itself, and in compliant. not being history of compliant with the deals they set out. saudi arabia boosted oil sales to china last month. what is behind that trend? >> china is a competitive market at the moment. you are seeing challenges to saudi arabia's dominance there from russia and other opec members like iraq and angola. in order to stay competitive in that market, which is the second biggest buyer of crude behind the u.s., it just has to maintain a foothold. sing the market
share declined consistently over the past couple of years because of that competition. to remain competitive, they have to be cost competitive. thank you so much for walking us through the latest in oil. still ahead, dubai again talks mastercard's destination cities index in the middle east. the uae was the most visited in the region. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
they will give landline services in iran, while they will help expand and modernize networks. european phone carriers are seeing to cap into the market of 80 million people. state owned oil company is a it is merging its shipping units. abernathy national oil will combine three companies by the end of next year. it is looking to cut costs as lower prices slow economic growth. it was to combine the two biggest banks and combine two of its largest sovereign wealth funds come as all caps holiday offshore energy businesses. that turkey's biggest ipo in years may not be enough to trigger sales. they plan to raise as much as $24 million in share sales. it is targeting thursday and friday for book rolling, and october 27 as the first day of trading.
analysts say the dearth of ipos will continue for some time coming in the political and economic uncertainty. mastercard's annual destination cities index has once again made dubai the top-ranked destination in the middle east. the uae is the most visited and fastest-growing country in the region. tracy: here to discuss the survey is michael my bok. i live in abu dhabi, so i am particularly intrigued that abu dhabi has been one of the fastest-growing region on this list for some time now. what does that say about abu dhabi's attempt to diversify its economy? we see that says is consumers were interested in traveling all around the world. that is the first thing. then you have an economy here in where the investment into the hotel sector, where the
investment into convenience and attractions at all that is getting people to come to the region. we have seen abu dhabi top the list for the last seven years -- since 2009. anare saying that only increase in spending, but an increase in travel. it is of sort of global hub. people stay, and come to stay because of these investments that the abu dhabi government and by government is making as well. youy: these are rankings are comparing one destination to another. give us more color on what you have seen on a year-to-year basis here in the emirates and another gulf nations. >> let's start with the uae. they have been having a focus on dubai, a focus on abu dhabi. both cities have been consistently top of the ranks. abu dhabi has continued its
investments, continues to attract travelers and tourists. year on year, it is just getting better. the poster city of the region for many years. same trends here. a consistent strategy and consistent approach luer's, lures business travelers. mastercard obviously a big presence in the region. what are you sing in terms of reddit quality and whether -- seeing in terms of credit quality and how laura prices affect the? >> if you think about our role in the payment system, we are essentially connecting consumers, merchants, and banks. credit tof extending a consumer, that is fundamentally the role of banks. in terms of data, we see travel data, but we do not really see
trevor -- credit quality data. , and just asrld much here in the region, there is a trend to prefer debit over credit. there is an increasing increase -- there is an increase in debit for you pay from your own account. also, an increase in prepaid cards. consumers are looking for these alternatives to pay. angie: outside of the region there, and morning global platform, how easing the u.s.? this is always in the biggest market when it comes to credit cards. what is the health of the consumer there? very same answer to a similar question here, in terms of the credit health of the u.s. and the u.s. consumer trend, broadly
speaking from around the world, consumers -- as a payment company, where looking for three things. they can pay for any channel, they looking for convenience -- making of payment simple -- and security and safety. safety is absolutely paramount. those trends of the same across the world. hen it comes to credit carl -- credit quality, and the broad trends, alternative to credit is a big we're seeing growth faster, debit, prepaid and the whole trend towards digitalized nation -- digitalized nation -- digitalization. in asia we see that, the ability to pay via mobile phone. it is being led by china and asia right now.
how are you adopting some of those for mastercard? the way that we look at the trend is we have had 50 years of payments technology that makes something fairly complex pretty simple. today, you tap a card, you swipe a card. with consumers, we're looking for digital access to their money and being around a payment at any point time. we have to make sure that we digitize that whole payment experience. that is what the focus is. when we are seeing what is happening in china, we have social media platforms used as payment tools, where you can pay someone on their social media handle. that is exactly the kind of technology that we are investing in an engaging in with payment partners all around the world to really take what has been sort for 50 years and make
how has malaysia airlines managed to do so well? they have done pretty good in a short. of time. its market share -- a short period of time. they now claim 53% of traffic between the two cities, up from 40% back in may. that 48% back in may. they have continued with a restructuring plan. they started selling return tickets between kl and london u.s..s low as 400 -- $490 day onen seats offered a single0 flights, and a 787 with 500 feet. doaysia airfares say it will
anything to remain the price leader on the london roots, and that includes discounting strategic markets. how the competition with the gulf carriers? they have a strong presence in the u.k. market as well. gulf carriers have control over about 7% of the market, and they want to grow that. .% of them travel via singapore we know gulf carriers are increasing their presence. earlier this year, emirates , the firstaily slot time it will go beyond five daily slot at heathrow. it joins the likes of qatar airlines as well. >> that does it for us on this edition of bloomberg markets middle east. anna edwards and manus cranny